The Federal Reserve's Barkin said it still believes inflation will fall back towards the Fed's 2% target, and the case for raising interest rates depends on evidence of overheating.
Federal Reserve Barkin said that uncertainty in the financial marekt appears to have decreased, and the market's forecast of the policy path is in line with the Fed's median expectation. There is a growing recognition that long-term interest rates may not fall as much as once hoped.
The Fed's Barkin said the underlying outlook for 2025 was positive, with more upside risks to growth than downside risks. Inflation is still not back on target and more work is needed; there are some potential upside risks to inflation. The 2025 story will focus less on monetary policy and more on economic fundamentals and perhaps geopolitics.
Barkin said the Fed would have to find its way to a neutral interest rate, depending on whether inflation stabilised. There may be more cost pressures in the future, and it is good to take a prudent approach.
Mr. Balkin said the economy was in good shape, which allowed the Fed to reduce borrowing costs. "A strong but more discerning consumer, combined with a more productive and valuable workforce, has made the economy a great place to be," Mr. Balkin said on Tuesday in remarks prepared for a joint summit speech in Baltimore. "The Fed has the ability to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves," he said.
The Federal Reserve's Barkin said inflation has declined, but it is not there yet, but progress is being made.
Mr. Barkin said he was taking a "trial and error" approach to cutting interest rates, suggesting he might support a 25 basis point cut, rather than the 50 basis points that some analysts believe. He noted that inflation was still half a percentage point above the Fed's 2 per cent target and that a rate cut could end up fuelling inflation by boosting demand for homes and other goods.
Mr. Barkin said the growth in non-farm payrolls in the 114,000 was not good enough but was "reasonable data" and that a sharp rate cut would be typical if the US economy weakened rapidly.